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Solar Cycle 25 Started on Remarkable Times

(2020-02-02 .. 26 by P.A.Semi - πα½ )

Abstract:

First sunspots of solar cycle 25 appeared already since year 2016, according to their polarity. This work lists their dates, with some introduction about sunspot cycle and magnetic "color" (polarity) of sunspots.



Sunspot Cycle

Solar magnetic activity has a cycle of approximately 11 years. But since the polar field of the Sun changes around time of solar maximum, and direction of sunspots is different in each cycle, it can be better understood as 22 year cycle (Hale cycle).


Butterfly diagram from Dr. David Hathaway, NASA MSFC ...
First sunspots of the cycle start appearing at high latitudes, and then the sunspot belt shifts continually toward the solar equator, which produces the well-known butterfly diagram, which is linked to the faster-moving belt of torsional oscilation.

First sunspots of new cycle often appear, while there are still some sunspots of the old cycle.

Since 1874, sunspot positions were recorded at Greenwich observatory and then since 1977 continued by USAF by Solar Optical Observing Network.

I determined solar cycle starts by first appearance of high-latitude sunspots in that dataset, and since magnetic observations are available, from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI instruments:

Cycle Starting time Possibly other starting time
SC 121879-04-15
SC 131890-03-04
SC 141902-03-06
SC 151913-10-081913-02-22
SC 161923-09-04
SC 171934-02-01
SC 181943-05-20
SC 191954-10-051954-07-16
SC 201963-10-11
SC 211975-10-021975-08-21
SC 221986-07-071984-11-21
SC 231996-05-07 (SOHO/MDI)1997-03-29
SC 242008-09-23 (SOHO/MDI)
SC 252016-12-11 (SDO/HMI)2019-02-12 (SDO/HMI)
Table 1 - probable starts of sunspot cycles, as determined by first high-latitude sunspots, since SC 23 determined by sunspot polarity on magnetograms on SOHO and SDO observatories.


(video)
Most people (who know about sunspots) think, that sunspots are dark and color-less, but actually they are very colorful, but in different part of light spectrum, in extreme ultra-violet and X-ray part of spectrum.

Normal solar surface has black-body radiation around 6,000°K, but magnetic loops above sunspots are almost 1,000,000°K hot.


Color scale used for magnetograms from JSOC.

Sunspot Polarity

But sunspots also have a "magnetic color", or rather a polarity of their strong magnetic field. Sunspots of each new cycle have oppositely oriented their positive and negative ends, and sunspots on northern hemisphere are oppositely oriented than sunspots on southern hemisphere:
(Since "color" can be understood as a certain frequency of light, and since magnetic field of sunspots is measured by a Doppler shift and Zeeman Splitting of specific frequencies of light, then it probably could be thought of as another kind of color...)
Examples of polarity of sunspots in late SC 22, northern and southern hemispheres


These magnetograms are filtered with low-frequency filter (FFT-2D) to remove noise in SOHO/MDI magnetograms, and same is applied on SDO/HMI magnetograms for visual unification, and equator is drawn as a blue line.
Examples of polarity of sunspots in SC 23, northern and southern hemispheres
Examples of polarity of sunspots in SC 24, northern and southern hemispheres


Differential rotation profile in deg/day difference from Carrington rotation, 2010-2018
In SC22 and SC24, northern sunspots have negative field on leading (right) side (yellow color), positive field on trailing (left) side (green color), and southern sunspots are opposite.

In SC23 and SC25, northern sunspots have positive field on leading (right) side (green color), negative field on trailing (left) side (yellow color), and southern sunspots are opposite.

(Animated Magnetic Map of Sun videos are available for SC 24 and SC 23 in rectangular projection, front side of Sun is as observed, far side of Sun is interpolated, flow profile of differential rotation is as measured by feature-tracking on SDO/HMI magnetograms...)


Notice, that SC24 (2008-2020) has been notably weaker than SC23 (1996-2009).

Magnetic field during solar cycles 23 and 24, one image per year, selecting some more active time of that year. ( SC23, SC24, video )

Some Active Regions evolve stronger and there appears a sunspot in visible spectrum, some do not.


Sunspot Cycle 25

Sunspot minimum after SC 24 has been unusually deep, calm and long, similarly as sunspot minimum between SC 23 and SC 24, both being deepest minimums in at least a century...

First sunspots or active regions of SC 25, as determined by their polarity, different from SC 24 sunspots, appeared occasionally since December 2016, but then since February 2019 started to appear more frequently. Sunspots of old cycle SC 24 still occur in early 2020...

Follows a list of probably every sunspot I found with polarity of SC25. Active Regions, that did not produce detectable sunspot, are omitted. Some of them I've noticed visually, and the rest was detected by programming approach and then verified visually, which way even small sunspots or those at unexpected low-latitude locations were discovered. As sunspots of new cycle start to appear at high latitudes, low-latitude sunspots with new polarity are rather exceptional...
(But listing even the tiny sunspots somehow dilutes the boldness of the message of the larger ones...)

First tiny sunspot of SC 25 appeared on morning of Third Advent Sunday, on 2016-12-11.
Next active region of SC 25 appeared on evening of Fourth Advent Sunday, on 2016-12-18, with a sunspot appearing the next day and intensifying on 2016-12-20. (Ref 8, Ref 9)
The cycle SC 24 was still underway and these were unexpected...

Possible remnant of another active region of SC 25 rolled into view on eastern limb on 2017-07-01 with no more sunspots, on a relatively low latitude of 14° South. It originated some time between 2017-06-17 and 2017-06-22 on far side of the Sun. (As it rolled into view of Stereo A, while the originating place could have been seen by Stereo B, if it was still operating.)

A tiny low-latitude (12.4° south) sunspot of SC 25 polarity appeared on 2018-03-15 with magnetic region probably starting on the evening before on Pi Day on 2018-03-14...

Next low-latitude (8.8° south) active region (AR 2703) with SC 25 polarity rolled into view from eastern limb on Maundy Thursday on 2018-03-29 and there was a sunspot from that thursday until Easter Sunday on 2018-04-01.

Next sunspot of SC 25 appeared on Orthodox Easter Monday, on 2018-04-09. (Ref 10)

Next tiny low-latitude (7.4° south) sunspot starting with SC 25 polarity (AR 2720) occured on Black Ribbon Day (Day of Remembrance for Victims of Stalinism and Nazism) on 2018-08-23 on north hemisphere, paired with larger old SC 24 sunspot on south hemisphere, which is rather uncommon and the usual magnetic loops connecting related regions seemed confused, and the region later turned into mixed old (SC 24) and new (SC 25) polarity...

Next tiny active region with a sunspot of SC 25 polarity occured on October Revolution Day on 2018-11-07 and sunspot occured there later on feast of Four Crowned Martyrs on 2018-11-08 ...

A very tiny and short-duration sunspot appeared on International Students Day, on 2018-11-17, which is also a "Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day" in Czech and Slovak republics.
It was a first sunspot on northern hemisphere. (Ref 9)

First sunspot of SC 25 in year 2019 appeared on Darwin Day, on 2019-02-12 near western limb. It's polarity was not well recognizable, since a sunspot viewed on magnetograms from right side sometimes appears to have an opposite polarity due to some effect of Doppler measurement of magnetic field.

(Also notable on this day 3 years ago in 2016 Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill signed an Ecumenical Declaration in the first such meeting between leaders of the Catholic and Russian Orthodox Churches since their split in 1054...)


The same Active Region (without another sunspot) rolled into view on eastern limb at start of Roman New Year, on 2019-03-01 from East side, on same place as moved by a differential rotation, with obviously the new SC 25 polarity.
(At Roman antiquity times, year started in March, as is still evidenced by month names September to December being named by latin numerals 7 to 10, while the first months are named by Roman Emperors - Marcus Aurilius Maius Iunius Julius Augustus?)

Next exceptionally low-latitude (5.1° south) and tiny active region of SC 25 occured on Estomihi Sunday on 2019-03-03 with a sunspot occuring on the next day...
A high-latitude (25.3° north) and very tiny sunspot with unknown polarity (because it had only one half of the typical field) occured on Pi Day on 2019-03-14 ...
(Maybe it was just a noise on HMIIF 2048 jpeg?)

Next tiny low-latitude (10° north) active region with sunspots of SC 25 polarity occured on 2019-05-29 on anniversary of Ascension of Baha'u'llah (Baha'i faith is probably the most righteous but suppressed branch of Islam.) through to the christian Feast of the Ascension on the next day 2019-05-30.

Next Active Region of SC 25 appeared on Feast of Saints Peter and Paul, on 2019-06-29, with a sunspot appearing the next day. (Ref 12)

Next sunspot of SC 25 (AR 2744) appeared on anniversary of Martyrdom of Master Jan Hus (Johannes Hus), on 2019-07-06, which is a national holiday in Czech Republic...
As Jan Hus appealed his condemnation by a rogue council, which was quarreling for a political might at the time of three popes, to the Jesus Christ himself, no-one on Earth could arbitrate his case or holiness before, even when pope Jan Paul II. apologized for his execution at year 2000.
But this time the arbitration in favour of sanctity of Jan Hus came undeniably from the Sun from God and 24 "old ones"...


Next very low-latitude (6.3° north) sunspot of SC 25 appeared on Feast of the Transfiguration on 2019-08-06 (which was set to this day on 1456, when the Kingdom of Hungary repulsed an Ottoman invasion of the Balkans by breaking the Siege of Belgrade. The same date was probably intentionally re-used for bombing of Hiroshima in 1945.)

A high-latitude (14.2° north) sunspot of old cycle SC 24 occured on 2019-09-01...

Next sunspot of SC 25 (AR 2750) appeared on All Saints Day, on 2019-11-01. Active region started at late Halloween night, and sunspot appeared on early All Saints Day.

Next Active Region rolled into view on eastern limb at Saint Martin holiday on 2019-11-11, evolving into tiny sunspot the day after...
(Earlier on this day 2019-11-11, between 12:40 UTC and 18:07 UTC occured transit of Mercury in front of Sun with center at 15:25:14 UTC)

It is also an Armistice Day, celebrating the end of World War...

(A short sunspot also appeared in this Active Region around midnight between 2019-11-17 and 2019-11-18 ...)

Another very tiny sunspot of SC 25 polarity occured on same day 2019-11-11 on another place...

A high-latitude (23.6° north) sunspot with old SC 24 polarity occured on Saint Nicholas Day on 2019-12-06...

A very tiny sunspot with SC 25 polarity occured on Feast of Immaculate Conception (Orthodox date) on 2019-12-09.

Another tiny sunspot with SC 25 popularity occured on Expectation of the Blessed Virgin Mary on 2019-12-18 .
On 2019-12-19 is Orthodox date of Saint Nicholas Day.

Next Active Region appeared on evening of 2019-12-22 on Fourth Advent Sunday, which coincided with Chanukkah on that year, and sunspot appeared there on Christmas Eve on 2019-12-24 (or a little sooner and then intensified on Christmas Eve).

(Proper dating of Bethlehem star is on 23rd December 3 BC in proleptic gregorian calendar)

Simultaneously, another Active Region of SC 25 appeared on northern hemisphere probably on 2019-12-23 late evening and sunspots appeared there on Christmas Eve on 2019-12-24 arround noon. (Ref 11)
(Other reported Active Regions (Ref 12) were not sufficiently resolved or clearly oriented in new way and were rather part of a normal noise.)

Next Active Region of SC 25 appeared on late 2019-12-31 and sunspot appeared after midnight 2020-01-01 on New Year Day .

Next Active Region of SC 25 on northern hemisphere appeared on Orthodox Christmas Day on 2020-01-07, with a sunspot appearing the next day...

Next active region with sunspot of SC 25 polarity appeared on Confession of Peter on 2020-01-18, which starts Week of Prayer for Christian Unity and then again on midnight between 2020-01-19 and 2020-01-20 ...
(January 19 is date of Epiphany in Eastern Orthodox church...
January 20 has multiple meanings...)


Next active region rolled into view on eastern limb almost exactly on Chinese New Year on New Moon, 2020-01-24 around 21:00 UTC...
(This year is a Year of the Mouse...)
It is also a date of Feast of Conversion of St.Paul and it is end of Week of Prayer for Christian Unity.

Last listed sunspot of start of SC 25 so far was on Orthodox Feast of Conversion of St. Paul on 2020-02-07, which is a date for New Martyrs and Confessors of the Russian Orthodox Church...

Time of Active Region
appearance on Magnetogram
Time of Sunspot
on Intensitygram
Remarks
2016-12-11 00:00 (new, tiny)2016-12-11 07:00Third Advent Sunday
2016-12-18 09:00 (new)2016-12-19 16:00Fourth Advent Sunday (AR 2620)
2018-03-14 21:00 (new, low-lat)2018-03-15 13:00Pi Day
2018-03-29 00:00 (rolling on limb,low-lat)2018-03-29 13:00Easter Maundy Thursday (AR 2703)
2018-04-09 02:00 (new)2018-04-09 11:00Orthodox Easter Monday
2018-08-23 11:00 (new, low-lat, unclear)2018-08-23 16:00Black Ribbon Day
2018-11-07 15:00 (new)2018-11-08 07:00Four Crowned Martyrs, Oct. revolution
2018-11-17 09:00 (new)2018-11-17 16:00International Students' Day
2019-02-12 16:00 (new)2019-02-12 22:00Darwin Day
2019-03-01 18:00 (rolling on limb)Roman New Year
2019-03-03 12:00 (new, low-lat) 2019-03-04 13:00Estomihi (Quinquadesima)
2019-05-28 18:00 (new, low-lat)2019-05-29 07:00Ascension of Baha'u'llah
2019-06-29 21:00 (new)2019-06-30 16:00Saints Peter and Paul
2019-07-06 12:00 (new)2019-07-06 16:00martyrdom of Jan Hus (AR 2744)
2019-08-06 06:00 (new, low-lat)2019-08-06 19:00Transfiguration, Hiroshima
2019-10-31 06:00 (new)2019-11-01 01:00All Saints Day (AR 2750)
2019-11-11 21:00 (rolling on limb)2019-11-12 13:00Saint Martin (AR 2752)
2019-11-11 06:00 (new, tiny)2019-11-11 10:00Saint Martin
2019-12-09 04:00 (new, tiny)2019-12-09 07:00Feast of Immaculate Conception
2019-12-18 06:00 (new)2019-12-18 16:00Expectation of the Blessed Virgin Mary
2019-12-23 06:00 (new)2019-12-23 16:00Christmas Day (almost) (AR 2753)
2019-12-23 21:00 (new)2019-12-24 13:00Christmas Eve (AR 2754)
2019-12-31 23:00 (new)2020-01-01 04:00New Year Day (AR 2755)
2020-01-07 12:00 (new)2020-01-08 13:00Orthodox Christmas Day (AR 2756)
2020-01-18 06:00 (new)2020-01-18 13:00
2020-01-19 19:00
Confession of St. Peter, Christian Unity.
Orthodox Epiphany
2020-01-24 21:00 (rolling on limb)2020-01-25 13:00Chinese New Year, Confession of Paul
2020-02-06 17:00 (new)2020-02-07 07:00New Martyrs of the Russian Church
Table2 - Times of first Active Regions and Sunspots in SC 25. Other numbered Active Regions belonged to the SC 24 according to their polarity... (Magnetogram times are with 1-hour granularity, Intensitygram times are with 3-hour granularity... AR numbers were retrieved from SWPC archive from SRS files...)


Conclusion

While on former years, sunspots seemed to appear in relation with planetary positions (Apparent Relations between Solar Activity and Solar Tides, Ching-Cheh Hung 2007 - [archived]), or at random, this time their correspondence with times of Christian holidays and starts of Calendary does not appear random at all and is hardly deniable...

At first in early 2019 I noticed the sunspot on Easter Monday 2018. Then I noticed the Jan Hus sunspot, a nice coincidence. But when I noticed sunspot on Christmas Eve, it was clearly a message. (I was not initially hunting for all new sunspots and noticing just few was enough to consider the cycle started.) Then investigating other sunspots in 2019, I noticed other dates of calendar starts and various saints and it confirmed the message. Only when trying to publish this, I noted other works listing other sunspots, some unexpectedly early in 2016, and needed to fill the table more completely, which somehow diluted the boldness of the message about Darwin and Jan Hus, but not completely, as the position of sunspots on feasts remained consistent. Then using programming approach to search for all spots on SDO/HMIIF intensitygrams and matching them on SDO/HMIB magnetograms to detect their polarity revealed even more sunspots tiny enough to be overlooked during visual inspection.

You may argue, that there are many christian feasts around the year. But these first sunspots of SC 25 are on major christian feasts and holidays, calendary starts, and just few exceptions so far. Excluding the 2 exceptions on advent sundays of 2016, there are almost 700 days between March 2018 and February 2020, with 24 sunspots counted, all falling on significant holidays.

Beside Christmas, Easter and St. Mary it lists saints Peter, Paul, Martin and Jan Hus, it lists four crowned martyrs and new martyrs of Russian Church. International Student's day and Pi Day are listed twice in these years, and Darwin is there to remember the churches of a reality of evolution.

I understand, that atheistic community would not be pleased by this revelation, and neither some of the churches, both with their Pride about fictitious infallibility and their superstitions.
Also the scientists just believed incorrect blunders, while scorning at believers for backwardness.


Video (or avi) is available with the Sunpots... (SDO/HMI Magnetogram, cropped and full-disk, SDO/HMIIF Intensitygram, SDO/AIA 171A EUV)

Supplement is available with text remarks to this list, JSON format listing of all sunspots in this time-span, and chart with interpolated magnetic intensity of SC23 and SC24...

(Updated 2020-02-29, πα½)

References

1. Solar Cycle Science, Dr. David Hathaway, solarcyclescience.com/solarcycle.html
2. The Sunspot Cycle, NASA MSFC, solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

3. Hale Cycle, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hale_cycle#Solar_dynamo , archive 2019-10-30

4. The Pattern of Rotation Rate Deviation Known as the Torsional Oscillations, Roger Ulrich, www.astro.ucla.edu/~ulrich/Torsional_Oscillations.html

5. GSSN - Interpolated Sunspot area and Synoptic Sunspot Map 1874-2012, P.A.Semi semi.gurroa.cz/Astro/gssn.html

6. Synoptic Charts of the Photospheric Line-of-Sight Magnetic Field, JSOC, jsoc.stanford.edu/new/HMI/LOS_Synoptic_charts.html

7. Solar and sunspot videos, P.A.Semi, pialpha.cz/Sun

8. The First Signs of Solar Cycle 25, Dean Pesnell, sdoisgo.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-first-signs-of-solar-cycle-25.html

9. A Sunspot from the Next Solar Cycle, Dr.Tony Phillips, spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/11/20/a-sunspot-from-the-next-solar-cycle/
10. A Sunspot from Cycle 25 for sure, Tomek Mrozek and Hugh Hudson, sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/wiki/index.php/A_Sunspot_from_Cycle_25_for_sure
11. SpaceWeather time machine, spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=12&year=2019
12. Cycle 25 observations in SDO HMI imagery, Solen Info, solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html , archive 2020-01-11